December 1st, 2009 12:00 AM

Mortgage rates and what will move them this week. Economic Forecast For the week of 11/30/09

Via Robert Rauf (REMN The Real Estate Mortgage Network):

 

 Well, Last week ended up being much better than I thought it would be. Traditionally we get a bit of a smack on holiday extended weekends, but this time we have to thank Dubai for tossing enough insecurity into the markets to cause a flight to quality that pumped a few extra dollars into our credit markets. By weeks end we had one of the more positive weeks we have seen in a few months. Can you say "Global Economy"?  Dubai??? That crazy rich little country that builds its own Islands.... That's the place.  They took a trip to a neighbor to borrow a few bucks so they could pay their bills and now the market has something else to worry about. 

This week starts a new month of data for the markets to chew on, along with the world hic-ups to digest. Here is the calendar:

• Monday November 30: a no news day with a slightly positive mortgage market.
• Tuesday December 1: Where did 2009 go?
• Tuesday: November institute of Supply Mgt (mfg) expected 55.0 vs last month 55.7. The decline is likely due to the Auto industry and it is not likely to move the market.
• Wednesday December 2: Fed Beige Book Released. This "book" compiles the 12 districts which are expected to show some recovery, but no new News. The fact is that employment is still ugly and it is not likely there will be any shockers here to move the market.
• Thursday December 3: Third quarter productivity and unit labor costs (revised) expected +8.6% and -4.2%. The productivity number is down from last month, that combined with labor costs up a bit from last month is a sparkle of light at the end of the tunnel. Will businesses start to hire now? it may be a bit of good news that might make the markets think twice about rates.
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims expected up 14,000. Just a quick side note to this Non event of a number. the week of Thanksgiving has seen initial jobless claims rise in 7 of the past 10 years. what a great week to get a pink slip???
• Thursday: November institute of supply Mgt (service sector) expected 51.5 vs 50.6. The bump up from last month was anticipated and as forecast is not likely to move the mortgage world. It would probably take a number below 50 to see a noticeable move down in rates.
• Thursday: Senate Banking committee's Hearing ot nominate Bernake to a second term. It is expected that some blame will be tossed at Ben. Typical of politicians to pass the buck along with the blame to make themselves feel better (and more "elect-able" perhaps?)  It may make for some interesting viewing but not likely to move the market.
• Friday December 4: Employment report with Non farm payroll expected at -130,000 and the jobless rate at 10.2%. If we see 10.3 and -150k we will see improvement in rates, Lets hope we don't see the jobs market any worse than it is already, I would rather see higher rates and a strong jobs market, isn't that better for everyone?

Well That's the calendar, heavily weighted on Thursday's side, but the biggie is most likely Fridays Employment report (from a numbers perspective at least).   It is expected that foreign funds will continue to seek shelter in our markets, especially in the credit markets. This flight to quality is helpful to keeping rates steady to possibly move them lower.  If things in Dubai shake out to be nothing scary and the world is not scared about the next melt down we may see funds flow back out and that could bring rates back up.  Remember that good news is bad news in the interest rate world.

Expect a choppy week. and after 5 straight weeks of improving rates I doubt we will see too much more improvement since we are so darn low already!

Have a great week.

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com   or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

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